As Director of Democrats for the Electoral College, I feel it’s important to issue a warning to voters who may be misled by the increasing talk around the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC). While the idea of electing a president based purely on the national popular vote has gained traction in some circles, we must not be distracted by initiatives that cannot and will not impact the upcoming election.
Here’s why the NPVIC is a trap—particularly for Democrats:
1. It Has No Bearing on the 2024 Election
The National Popular Vote Compact, as enticing as it may sound to some, cannot change the current election process. In order for the compact to take effect, states representing a majority (270 electoral votes) must pass legislation agreeing to allocate their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. As of now, it hasn’t reached that threshold, and cannot before the upcoming election.
Don’t let anyone convince you otherwise—this election will be decided the same way as every other election in modern history: through the Electoral College.
2. It Shifts Focus Away from Crucial Election Efforts
We are in a critical election cycle where every vote and every electoral strategy counts. Energy spent discussing the National Popular Vote Compact is energy taken away from where it’s needed: organizing, mobilizing, and getting voters out to the polls in states that will decide the Electoral College outcome.
3. Legal and Constitutional Hurdles
Even if enough states were to adopt the compact in the future, it will face serious legal challenges. The U.S. Constitution grants states the authority to appoint electors, but it also establishes the Electoral College as the system for electing the president. Altering or bypassing this process through clever workarounds will result in a protracted legal battle that would further delay or upend any efforts to shift to a national popular vote system.
This could leave voters disillusioned and confused about the integrity of the electoral process, playing into the hands of those who seek to undermine confidence in our democratic system.
4. Potentially Unintended Consequences
As Democrats, we must consider that a national popular vote could actually backfire. While we may win the popular vote in one election, future elections could see narrow victories in populous states being overturned by less populated regions. Our nation’s politics are constantly shifting, and any change that seemingly benefits Democrats today could be our undoing in the future (think about how abolishing the filibuster on most nominations to the federal bench allowed Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump to put three justices on the Supreme Court!) Our focus should be on strengthening our state-level efforts, securing electoral wins, and addressing voter suppression where it matters most.
Conclusion
Don’t be fooled by the promises of the National Popular Vote Compact. It’s a distraction, a trap that cannot impact this election, and one that shifts focus away from the real work we need to be doing right now. If we want to ensure Democratic victories and protect our democratic process, we must keep our eyes on the prize: winning the Electoral College in the upcoming election.
Let’s not waste time on an idea that won’t change the outcome of 2024, and may hurt us in the future.
In solidarity,
Jasper Hendricks
Director, Democrats for the Electoral College